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» Oil rigs are seen in Midland, Texas May 9, 2008. Oil jumped to a record above $126 a barrel on Friday, extending gains to more than 11 percent since the start of the month on fuel supply concerns and a rush of speculator buying.2008年5月份德克薩斯州的石油鉆井平臺(tái)。在周五的時(shí)候，原油價(jià)格飆升到了每桶126美元以上，這是自從本月初人們開(kāi)始擔(dān)心能源供給和一系列的投機(jī)購(gòu)買行為后，才導(dǎo)致了原油價(jià)格上升，上升幅度超過(guò)了11個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。(Reuters) - The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's top oil producer by 2017, the West's energy agency said on Monday, predicting Washington will come very close to achieving a previously unthinkable energy self-sufficiency.(路透社)——西方的能源機(jī)構(gòu)(國(guó)際能源署)在周一的時(shí)候說(shuō)，到2017年時(shí)，美國(guó)將會(huì)取代沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯成為世界頭號(hào)原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)，該機(jī)構(gòu)還預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)在能源上將能夠自給自足，而這在過(guò)去是不可想象的。The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it saw a continued fall in U.S. oil imports with North America becoming a net oil exporter by around 2030 and the United States becoming almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035.國(guó)際能源署說(shuō)，美國(guó)現(xiàn)在的原油進(jìn)口量在不斷的降低，到2030年左右，北美將會(huì)成為原油凈出口地區(qū)，而到2035年時(shí)，美國(guó)在能源上將幾乎能達(dá)到自給自足。"The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said.國(guó)際能源署說(shuō)：“美國(guó)現(xiàn)在的能源進(jìn)口量大約占其總需求量的20%，如果按凈值來(lái)計(jì)算的話，幾乎達(dá)到了自給自足的狀態(tài)——而大多數(shù)國(guó)家似乎越來(lái)越依賴于能源進(jìn)口，所以美國(guó)的能源進(jìn)出口趨勢(shì)和其他大多數(shù)國(guó)家是相反的。The forecasts by the IEA, which advises large industrialized nations on energy policy, were in sharp contrast to its previous reports, which saw Saudi Arabia remaining the top producer until 2035.國(guó)際能源署這次做的有關(guān)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家能源政策上的預(yù)測(cè)和該機(jī)構(gòu)之前的做的預(yù)測(cè)產(chǎn)生了強(qiáng)烈的對(duì)比，因?yàn)樵摍C(jī)構(gòu)之前說(shuō)沙特阿拉伯直到2035年還會(huì)是世界頭號(hào)石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。"Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America - and the energy sector," the IEA said in the annual long-term report, giving one of the most optimistic forecasts for U.S. energy production growth to date.“美國(guó)能源發(fā)展的成就是巨大的，對(duì)北美以及北美以外的地方都會(huì)產(chǎn)生影響——而且還會(huì)對(duì)除能源部門外的其他部門產(chǎn)生影響�！眹�(guó)際能源署在其每年發(fā)布的遠(yuǎn)期報(bào)告中這樣說(shuō)道，在這份報(bào)告中，國(guó)際能源署對(duì)美國(guó)的能源生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)率給予了極其樂(lè)觀的預(yù)測(cè)，而這在之前是從沒(méi)發(fā)生過(guò)的。"The recent rebound in U.S. oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity - with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge," it added.報(bào)告中還說(shuō)道：“最近美國(guó)石油和天然氣的產(chǎn)量都得到了大幅的提高，主要原因是應(yīng)用了最新的開(kāi)采技術(shù)，所以那些處于地底深層的原油以及在頁(yè)巖以下的天然氣都得到了很好的開(kāi)采，所以美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)得到了大量的能源供給——天然氣和電價(jià)的價(jià)格變得更便宜了，這使得美國(guó)的企業(yè)的成本更低，從而更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told a news conference in London he believed the United States would overtake Russia as the biggest gas producer by a significant margin by 2015. By 2017, it would become the world's largest oil producer, he said.國(guó)際能源署的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家畢洛在倫敦的一個(gè)新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō)，他相信到2015年時(shí)，美國(guó)能夠以絕對(duì)的優(yōu)勢(shì)取代俄羅斯成為世界上最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)。他又說(shuō)，到2017年時(shí)，美國(guó)將會(huì)成為最大的原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。This could have significant geopolitical implications, if Washington feels its strategic interests are no longer as embedded in the Middle East and other volatile oil producing regions.而這也會(huì)對(duì)地緣政治產(chǎn)生一些影響，比如美國(guó)可能會(huì)覺(jué)得其戰(zhàn)略利益不再存在于中東地區(qū)或者是其它動(dòng)蕩的石油生產(chǎn)區(qū)域了。Analysts ask whether an energy independent United States would still be prepared to safeguard major trade routes around the world, such as the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.有分析學(xué)者可能會(huì)問(wèn)：一個(gè)能源上獨(dú)立的美國(guó)是否還會(huì)去保衛(wèi)世界上主要的貿(mào)易路線，比如中東的霍爾木茲海峽。The United States will rely more on natural gas than either oil or coal by 2035 as cheap domestic supply boosts demand among industry and power generators, the IEA said.到2035年時(shí)，美國(guó)將會(huì)更多的依賴天然氣，對(duì)石油或者是煤炭的依賴沒(méi)有天然氣那么高，原因是美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)就可以大量的供應(yīng)便宜的天然氣資源，這刺激了工業(yè)部門和發(fā)電廠對(duì)天然氣的需求，國(guó)際能源署如此說(shuō)道。LIMITED KNOWLEDGE有限的認(rèn)識(shí)Birol said he realized how optimistic the IEA forecasts were given that the shale oil boom was a relatively new phenomenon.畢洛說(shuō)，目前頁(yè)巖油相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)還是新事物，之前并沒(méi)有大量的開(kāi)采過(guò)，所以國(guó)際能源署才會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)的能源未來(lái)那么的積極樂(lè)觀。"Light, tight oil resources are poorly known ... If no new resources are discovered (after 2020) and plus, if the prices are not as high as today, then we may see Saudi Arabia coming back and being the first producer again," he said.“那些埋在地底深層的石油資源目前還不被人所熟知。。。如果在2020年以后還沒(méi)有新的深層石油資源被發(fā)現(xiàn)，加上如果那時(shí)的原油價(jià)格沒(méi)有今天這么高的話，那么沙特阿拉伯可能卷土重來(lái)并且再次奪得頭號(hào)原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)的寶座�！彼�如此說(shuō)道。The IEA said it saw U.S. oil production rising to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015 and 11.1 million bpd in 2020 before slipping to 9.2 million bpd by 2035.國(guó)際能源署說(shuō)，美國(guó)的原油產(chǎn)量到2015年時(shí)會(huì)達(dá)到每天1000萬(wàn)桶，而到2020年時(shí)每天可以達(dá)到1110萬(wàn)桶，而到2035年時(shí)會(huì)下降到920萬(wàn)桶。Saudi Arabian oil output would be 10.9 million bpd by 2015, the IEA said, 10.6 million bpd in 2020 but would rise to 12.3 million bpd by 2035.而沙特阿拉伯的石油產(chǎn)量在這三個(gè)時(shí)期則分別是1090萬(wàn)桶，1060萬(wàn)桶以及1230萬(wàn)桶。That would see the world relying increasingly on OPEC after 2020 as, in addition to increases from Saudi Arabia, Iraq will account for 45 percent of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and become the second-largest exporter, overtaking Russia.所以最終的結(jié)果是，在2020年以后，整個(gè)世界還會(huì)繼續(xù)依賴歐佩克的石油，原因是不僅沙特阿拉伯會(huì)有更多的石油產(chǎn)出，更重要的原因是，到2035年時(shí)，伊拉克將會(huì)占據(jù)全球石油生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)份額的45%并且代替俄羅斯成為第二大石油出口國(guó)。OPEC's share of world oil production will rise to 48 percent from 42 percent now.到那時(shí)，歐佩克在全球石油產(chǎn)量上的份額將會(huì)從現(xiàn)在的42%增長(zhǎng)到48%。Russian oil output, which over the past decade has been steadily above Saudi Arabia, is predicted to stay flat at over 10 million bpd until 2020, when it will start to decline to reach just above 9 million bpd by 2035.俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量在過(guò)去的十年來(lái)正在穩(wěn)步的超越沙特阿拉伯，但是，到2020年時(shí)，其石油產(chǎn)量將只能達(dá)到每天1000萬(wàn)桶的規(guī)模，然后就會(huì)開(kāi)始走下坡路，到2035年時(shí)，將只能達(dá)到每天900多萬(wàn)桶的規(guī)模。"Russia, which remains the largest individual energy exporter throughout the period, sees its revenues from oil, natural gas and coal exports rise from $380 billion in 2011 to $410 billion in 2035," the IEA said.國(guó)際能源署說(shuō)：“在這個(gè)期間，俄羅斯將還會(huì)是世界上最大的個(gè)體能源出口國(guó)，其從石油、天然氣和煤炭中獲得的收入將從2011年的3800億美元上升到2035年的4100億美元�！盩he U.S. oil boom would accelerate a switch in the direction of international oil trade, the IEA said, predicting that by 2035 almost 90 percent of oil from the Middle East would be drawn to Asia.美國(guó)在石油上的產(chǎn)量大增，這將會(huì)加快國(guó)際石油貿(mào)易方向上的轉(zhuǎn)變，國(guó)際能源署如此說(shuō)道，該機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，到2035年時(shí)，中東國(guó)家90%的石油將會(huì)被出口到亞洲。ENERGY DEMAND GROWS BY THIRD能源需求增長(zhǎng)三分之一The report assumes a huge expansion in the Chinese economy, which it saw overtaking the United States in purchasing power parity soon after 2015 and by 2020 using market exchange rates. Chinese real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 5.7 percent annually between 2011 and 2035.國(guó)際能源署的這份報(bào)告假設(shè)了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)繼續(xù)得到巨大的發(fā)展，認(rèn)為通過(guò)利用市場(chǎng)匯率的手段，在購(gòu)買力均價(jià)上中國(guó)將會(huì)在2015年到2020年期間超過(guò)美國(guó)。而中國(guó)的實(shí)際國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值在2011年至2034年之間每年將會(huì)以5.7%的速度增長(zhǎng)。A rise of 1.8 billion in the world's population to 8.6 billion would lead to a spike in global oil demand by more than a 10th to over 99 million bpd by 2035, keeping pressure on oil prices, the IEA said.國(guó)際能源署說(shuō), 到2035年時(shí)，世界人口將新增加18億達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的86億，這將會(huì)使對(duì)石油的需求達(dá)到頂峰，所以到2035時(shí)，全球每天要生產(chǎn)9900萬(wàn)桶的原油才能滿足需求，這會(huì)給石油價(jià)格帶來(lái)巨大的壓力。The agency's central "New Policies" scenario, which assumes a range of measures are taken to curb oil consumption in Europe, the United States, China and elsewhere, sees the average import cost of oil rise to just over $215 per barrel by 2035 in nominal terms, or $125 in 2011 terms.國(guó)際能源署的“新政策”方案假設(shè)世界通過(guò)一系列的措施來(lái)遏制歐洲，美國(guó)，中國(guó)以及世界其他地方的石油消費(fèi)，但是即使是在這種情況下，到2035年時(shí)，平均的石油進(jìn)口價(jià)格將會(huì)達(dá)到每桶215美元或更多，這是以名義(票面)價(jià)值來(lái)計(jì)算的，如果以2011年的基礎(chǔ)來(lái)計(jì)算的話，將會(huì)達(dá)到125美元每桶。If fewer steps are taken to promote renewable energy and curb carbon dioxide emissions, oil was likely to exceed $250 per barrel in nominal terms by 2035 and reach $145 in real terms -- almost level with the record highs seen four years ago.如果不采取措施來(lái)發(fā)展可再生能源和抑制二氧化碳的排放的話，到2035年時(shí)，石油價(jià)格(按名義價(jià)值算)將會(huì)超過(guò)250美元每桶，或者達(dá)到145美元每桶(扣除物價(jià)因素)——而這和四年前出現(xiàn)的高油價(jià)一樣的高。The share of coal in primary energy demand will fall only slightly by 2035.到2035年的時(shí)候，人們對(duì)煤炭的需求只會(huì)下降一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。Fossil fuels in general will remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, jumped by almost 30 percent to $523 billion, due mainly to increases in the Middle East and North Africa.一般來(lái)說(shuō)，化石燃料將會(huì)在全球能源組合中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，但是由于得到了政府的補(bǔ)貼，在2011年的時(shí)候，化石燃料的產(chǎn)值下降了30%達(dá)到5230億美元，而這個(gè)產(chǎn)值中的大部分主要受益于中東和北非的產(chǎn)量提高。因該已經(jīng)開(kāi)發(fā)出來(lái)新能源了，不然以美國(guó)的觀念不大可能挖自己的東西 因該已經(jīng)開(kāi)發(fā)出來(lái)新能源了，不然以美國(guó)的觀念不大可能挖自己的東西我昨天轉(zhuǎn)過(guò)了。。。不過(guò)沒(méi)英文。。。。新能源技術(shù)有把握20年內(nèi)取得突破性進(jìn)展了，不再憋著能源造成緊張局勢(shì)，加快消耗能力加重其他國(guó)家跟進(jìn)消耗能力進(jìn)一步用新能源技術(shù)壟斷世界減少對(duì)歐佩克依賴和綠教陣營(yíng)扯皮，繼續(xù)拖著全球能源問(wèn)題嚴(yán)重化和減少軍事戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)保存實(shí)力憋新科技完了又一次領(lǐng)先全球20年。美軍不僅是在石油輸出國(guó)存在，全世界都要遍布，日韓不就是